Enrique Ortiz has made some predictions on the mobile trend of 2009. I am not going to rewrite what he wrote on his blog, but I am going to digest it and make a note on the trend for us to think about it.
Sales
The sales of Smartphones is growing. Apple and HTC 's smartphone sales are growing, but Nokia 's is going down. Ortiz thinks it is because Nokia lack of touchscreen smartphone. May be or may be not? I think it is because of the bad user experience created by the buggy Symbain OS. However, Nokia is still the leading mobile phone supplier, till now.
OS
He mentioned Android will get lots of support from all kinds of network providers and device manufacturers. That means Android is somewhat has its advantage to grow faster in the future.
App Store
Learned from Apple, app store is fast distribution models. Google app store and BlackBerry app store will be another big things.
J2ME
Ortiz 's J2ME is going to MIDP3 or CDC + OSGi, or JavaFX. In my opinion, no matter how good J2ME is, it won't rule unless you have good distribution model for J2ME app to attract the developer. They just want to make money. For platform, developer is king. I wanna quote the words from the crazy Microsoft CEO Bellmer, "Developer, developer, developer, developer! Wow~"
Mobile Web
"The ideal of mobile web having access to local handset functionality won’t be fulfilled yet(to its fullest)", Ortiz wrote. Who wants it? I mean ... by ignoring the security issue, what are the use cases for mobile web having access to full functionality of handset? Well, this is just a question.
He wrote, "App stores will continue to have its huge effect on mobile apps and distribution. Due to the revenue and fast distribution models offered by iPhone and soon Android app stores, developers will first target such local applications (vs. mobile web). An even larger number of local/native applications will be created and distributed via app stores for Android and iPhone."
December 28, 2008
Mobile Mobile 2009
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